This week we pay the home sales piper

We're going to get our first indication on Wednesday just how big the crash is going to be following the expiration of the new home buyer tax credit. That's the day new home sales for May come out. May's the first month the credit won't have been a factor.

If early indications are any clue, it's going to be ugly. Everything I've been reading and hearing from people out there is that sales are down 20 to 50 percent depending on your market. We'll see how the national numbers come out.

Don't let Tuesday's numbers on existing home sales fool you. Those should still be good because existing sales are reported when the deal is closed, while new sales are reported when the contract is signed. With the recent move to extend the time for buyers to close on deals and get the tax credit, it could be months of those sales trickling in.